Coupling coordination evaluation and system regulation of water environmental carrying capacity from a green development perspective

ABSTRACT Water environment carrying capacity (WECC) reflects the balance between water resource utilization and environmental protection. It is closely related to the green development level (GDL). This study employed a comprehensive index evaluation and a system dynamics (SD) model to assess WECC in Hubei Province from a green development viewpoint. The analysis covered spatiotemporal changes in WECC and GDL from 2012 to 2022. Geographic detection pinpointed key factors driving their coordination. The SD model simulated WECC under five scenarios from 2023 to 2030. Results showed GDL improved before WECC, suggesting GDL growth likely boosted WECC. WECC rose from 0.479 in 2012 to 0.657 in 2022. The coupling coordination degree with GDL increased from 0.694 to 0.826. Driving factors shifted from industrial water management to water recycling and carbon emission control. Most scenarios enhanced WECC, except the economic priority scenario, which caused a 1.61% drop. Effectiveness was ranked as follows: green development > resource conservation > environmental protection > status quo maintenance > economic priority. The green development scenario performed best. It projected WECC to exceed 0.8 by 2026, reaching a high level. This study advises prioritizing green development for regional sustainability.