Selection of a dam site by using AHP and VIKOR: The Sakarya Basin

Abstract The Sakarya Basin is an important area for water resources and dams in the Northern Anatolia Region, and it also draws attention due to its high population density. Within this context, it is crucial to consider specific criteria such as natural influences and topographic features in the selection of dam sites. This study aims to propose an effective methodology for selecting a site for a new dam in a first-degree earthquake zone, which constitutes the main challenge in the site selection process. The locations of seven dams situated in the Northern Anatolia Earthquake Zone have been evaluated based on six criteria: earthquake, geological and geotechnical properties, valley characteristics, expropriation, environmental impacts, and climate and meteorological conditions. The analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and the Vlse Kriterijumska Optimizacija Kompromisno Resenje (VIKOR) method have been used together as multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) techniques. The AHP was employed to systematically determine the weights of the criteria based on expert opinions. The VIKOR method provided a foundation for evaluating alternative solutions. The optimal solution closest to the ideal has been achieved. A sensitivity analysis was performed by adjusting the weight of the earthquake criterion, which is of great significance for the study area, by approximately ±10%. The analysis revealed that the criterion weights significantly affect the rankings of the alternative regions. The research findings demonstrate that MCDM can effectively identify the most sensitive areas in the region. It is believed that incorporating the results obtained from MCDM methods into disaster management and urban planning strategies could mitigate the negative impacts of future earthquakes.