Techno-economic analysis framework for perovskite solar module production at various manufacturing capacities

Perovskite solar cells have disrupted the PV technology space with impressive power conversion efficiencies in the last decade. Given the solution-phase processability, band-gap tunability, and low energy intensity of production, many fabrication techniques and cell architectures have been explored to manufacture these cells and modules. However, the design space for these third-generation PVs is highly complex coupled with uncertainty regarding their lifetimes and efficiencies which requires a more detailed and comprehensive analysis. Here, a bottom-up techno-economic model was developed to analyze the impacts of various decision variables including the materials and fabrication techniques. The model was then further employed to analyze the effect of economies of scale with different levels of automation to provide more realistic estimates for different key performance indicators associated with this technology. A sensitivity analysis was also conducted to identify the important input parameters using Morris’s statistical method given the pre-commercial production stage for this PV technology. Using this approach, the main bottlenecks for industrial upscaling and mass production for these technologies were identified. Metrics including module manufacturing cost, minimum sustainable price, and levelized cost of energy (LCOE) were evaluated along with the implications of different module replacement strategies on the LCOE. • Bottom-up techno-economic model for perovskite solar module (PSM) cost estimation at different annual production capacities. • Morris sensitivity and uncertainty analysis for various parameters involved in manufacturing cost (MC) estimation. • MC density distribution for alternative fabrication routes such as solution-based and vapor-based deposition routes. • Levelized cost of energy (LCOE) analysis with different replacement strategies over a range of module costs.