Exploration of Predictors of Educational Aspirations of Vocational High School Students

This study explores key predictors of educational aspiration among vocational high school students in South Korea, using data from the 8th wave of the Korea Education Longitudinal Study (KELS 2013). The XGBoost algorithm was employed to identify influential variables shaping students’ intentions to pursue higher education. Results showed that academic-related factors—such as class attentiveness, elective course selection, and participation in private tutoring—had the strongest impact. Notably, private education had greater predictive power than school-based activities, underscoring the role of external learning support. Additionally, choosing elective subjects aligned with college majors was associated with higher aspirations, reflecting strategic academic planning. In contrast, leisure reading and body satisfaction were negatively associated with aspiration, suggesting that certain personal or non-academic activities may lower college-bound motivation. These findings highlight the complex interplay of academic engagement, private learning, and personal factors in shaping educational goals. Based on the results, the study recommends enhanced career counseling, improved elective course planning, and expanded in-school academic support. Further research should consider student background and vocational track differences to better support postsecondary transitions.