Dynamic Analysis of the Relationship Between Domestic Coal Imports and Baltic Dry Index

This study empirically analyzed the causal relationship between the volume of domestic coal imports and the maritime freight index. To this end, monthly data for about 15 years from January 2010 to September 2024 were constructed, and the relationship between the maritime freight index and the volume of domestic coal was evaluated. The maritime freight index used the latest data from Clarkson, and the domestic coal volume data was analyzed based on SPOT bidding information of five power generation companies under the Korea Electric Power Corporation (KEPCO). As a result of analyzing the relationship between the volume of domestic coal imports and the maritime freight index, it was found that the international freight fluctuations had a large effect on the volume of domestic coal imports, but in the opposite case, the volume of goods was limited in predicting maritime freight rates. However, it was found that BPI acts as a Granger cause at the 1% significance level for PNO and PQTY, and on the contrary, PNO and PQTY also affect BPI at the 5% significance level.