Ecological management zoning based on the ecosystem service supply–demand balance and the driving processes of the influencing factors in China

Understanding spatiotemporal patterns of ecosystem service balance (ESB) is crucial for restoring damaged ecosystems. Existing studies focus on ESB's current status, neglecting its dynamic changes and drivers in management strategies. This study proposed a framework to classify China's county-level ecological management zones using the balance between supply and demand of terrestrial ecosystems in China (2000–2020) and formulated tailored strategies based on key drivers. Using expert scoring matrices, ecosystem service supply (ESS), demand (ESD), and ESB were assessed. A four-quadrant model categorized zones, while random forest analysis identified drivers. The results indicated: (1) ESS and ESD showed significant spatiotemporal disparities, with China’s ESS exceeding ESD overall but the gap widening; (2) Four management zones were mapped via static/dynamic ESB indices; (3) Ecological land ratio dominated ESB variation, while changes in ecological land and impervious surfaces drove ΔESB shifts; (4) Critical turning points in ESB/ΔESB aligned with driver changes, informing zone-specific strategies. Integrating these dynamics and drivers enhances precision in ecological management, offering actionable insights for balancing conservation and development. This approach addresses gaps in current research by linking ESB trends to policy design, aiding sustainable ecosystem governance. • China’s ecosystem service (ES) supply exceeding ES demand overall but the gap widening. • Ecological management zones (EMZ) are identified by static-dynamic ES supply-demand balance. • Ecological land dominated static ES supply-demand balance variation in China. • Ecological land and impervious surfaces drove dynamic ES supply-demand balance shifts. • Integrating driving factors to EMZ enhances precision in ecological management.