Green development efficiency and its determinants in China's agricultural product circulation Industry: An empirical analysis based on panel data from 26 provinces

This paper employs the super-efficiency slack-based measure (SBM) model with undesirable outputs to measure the green development efficiency of the agricultural product circulation industry (APCI) across 26 provinces of China from 2013 to 2022, and applies the kernel density estimation method to reveal its spatio-temporal evolution characteristics. Furthermore, the Tobit model is utilized to analyze the factors influencing the green development efficiency of the APCI. The research reveals that: (1)The green development efficiency of China's APCI is at a medium level. In 2019, a significant spatial demarcation emerged in the green development efficiency of China's agricultural product circulation industry, with the efficiency highland shifting from North/Northeast China to Southern regions, thereby manifesting a new "high-south, low-north" efficiency configuration. (2) Interprovincial disparities initially narrowed and subsequently widened. Furthermore, the six major regions exhibited heterogeneous dynamic characteristics, while the green development efficiency of the APCI demonstrated spatial imbalance across provinces. (3) The openness to international market (OIM) exerts a statistically significant positive effect on the green development efficiency of the APCI. Conversely, industrial structure (IS) and agricultural pollution level (API) demonstrate inhibitory effects on APCI's green development efficiency. This study deepens the understanding of APCI's green development efficiency, constructs a systematic measurement framework, expands research perspectives, and provides tools for governments, industries, and enterprises to evaluate efficiency accurately. • Super-efficiency SBM and kernel density methods evaluate APCI green efficiency across 26 Chinese provinces (2013–2022). • Spatial pattern shifted from "north-high, south-low" to "south-high, north-low" post-2019. • Openness boosts APCI efficiency; industrial structure and agricultural pollution hinder it; rural logistics insignificant. • Significant regional disparities with multi-tier differentiation in green development efficiency. • Systematic framework advances APCI efficiency assessment, aiding policy and industry decision-making.