“Don’t forget the number 1 in soccer talent research!” – Predictive validity of objectively tested motor attributes and subjectively rated position-specific skills in elite youth goalkeepers

In the ever-growing body of evidence on relevant talent predictors in soccer, goalkeepers (GKs) remain vastly underrepresented. Therefore, this large-scale prospective study was designed to investigate the predictive validity of objectively tested motor attributes and subjectively rated position-specific skills on GKs' selection into a youth academy (YA) three seasons after data collection. GKs across four age groups (U12-U15; <i>N</i> = 3431) who are part of the German Football Association's talent development program completed five motor tests assessing general speed abilities and position-independent technical skills. GK-specific technical and tactical skills, and GKs' overall performance level, were subjectively assessed via coach ratings. Univariate analyses performed separately for each age group confirmed the predictive validity of the motor tests (<i>Mdn(d)</i> = 0.35), evaluations of GK-specific skills (<i>Mdn(d)</i> = 0.68), and ratings of GKs' overall performance level (Mdn(Φ) = 0.21). Multivariate analyses demonstrated that considering all predictors in combination revealed explanatory power for a YA selection (.13 ≤ Nagelkerke's R² ≤ .22), with at least one significant objective and subjective predictor. Yet, except for participants in U14, only one GK-specific predictor reached significance indicating limiting additional explanatory power from other subjectively rated variables. Overall, the findings indicate benefits from the combined consideration of position-independent and GK-specific attributes as predictors of goalkeeping talent.