Assessment of Crop Water Resource Utilization in Arid and Semi-Arid Regions Based on the Water Footprint Theory

The arid and semi-arid regions of Northwest China, as major agricultural production zones, have long faced dual challenges: increasing water resource pressure and severe supply–demand imbalances caused by the expansion of cultivated land. The crop water footprint, an effective indicator for quantifying agricultural water use, plays a crucial role in supporting sustainable development in the region. This study adopted a multi-scale spatiotemporal analysis framework, combining the CROPWAT model with Geographic Information System (GIS) techniques to investigate the spatiotemporal evolution of crop water footprints in Northwest China from 2000 to 2020. The Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) model was used to analyze spatial variations in the driving forces. A multidimensional evaluation system—encompassing structural, economic, ecological, and sustainability dimensions—was established to comprehensively assess agricultural water resource utilization in the region. Results indicated that the crop water footprint in Northwest China followed a “decline-increase-decline” trend, it increased from 90.97 billion m3 in 2000 to a peak of 133.49 billion m3 in 2017, before declining to 129.30 billion m3 in 2020. The center of the crop water footprint gradually shifted northward—from northern Qinghai to southern Inner Mongolia—mainly due to rapid farmland expansion and increasing water consumption in northern areas. Policy and institutional effect, together with economic development effect, were identified as the primary drivers, contributing 49% in total. Although reliance on blue water has decreased, the region continues to experience moderate water pressure, with sustainable use achieved in only half of the study years. Water scarcity remains a pressing concern. This study offers a theoretical basis and policy recommendations to enhance water use efficiency, develop effective management strategies, and promote sustainable water resource utilization in Northwest China.