The impact of the China-US tariff war on China and China’s countermeasures

Since the start of the China-US trade dispute in 2018, the United States has imposed numerous sanctions against China, citing national security concerns and unfair trade practices, including the imposition of tariffs. In April 2025, the US escalated tariffs on Chinese imports to 34% and threatened to raise rates to 245%. These actions came amid increased reciprocal trade measures between the countries. This paper examines the historical origins and evolutionary trajectory of the tariff dispute. Employing literature analysis, data comparison, and qualitative analysis, it evaluates the negative impacts and adaptive changes on China’s economic trade, technology manufacturing, and social welfare. The study found that while China’s total trade value initially declined by 0.96% year-on-year in 2019, it achieved a V-shaped rebound, reaching a historical record of USD 6.25 trillion in 2022. The trade surplus with the US decreased by 28.6% by 2024, yet China’s overall trade surplus grew to a peak of USD 992.2 billion in 2024, driven by significant expansions with the EU, ASEAN, and Mexico. Furthermore, China’s semiconductor self-sufficiency rate increased from 5% in 2018 to nearly 30% by 2024. These shifts underscore China’s accelerated economic transformation toward domestic demand and innovation, exemplified by total retail sales exceeding 48 trillion yuan in 2024. The paper also discusses new trends in global order restructuring and analyzes China’s strategic responses. By adopting a tripartite model of “precision countermeasures, strategic resilience, and multilateralism”, the paper advocates safeguarding China’s national interests while maintaining stable development.