Comparative Study of Machine Learning Techniques for Predicting UCS Values Using Basic Soil Index Parameters in Pavement Construction

This study investigated the prediction of unconfined compressive strength (UCS), a common measure of soil’s undrained shear strength, using fundamental soil characteristics. While traditional pavement subgrade design often relies on parameters like the resilient modulus and California bearing ratio (CBR), researchers are exploring the potential of incorporating more easily obtainable strength indicators, such as UCS. To evaluate the potential effectiveness of UCS for pavement engineering applications, a dataset of 152 laboratory-tested soil samples was compiled to develop predictive models. For each sample, geotechnical properties including the Atterberg limits, liquid limit (LL), plastic limit (PL), water content (WC), and bulk density (determined using the Harvard miniature compaction apparatus), alongside the UCS, were measured. This dataset served to train various models to estimate the UCS from basic soil parameters. The methods employed included multi-linear regression (MLR), multi-nonlinear regression (MNLR), and several machine learning techniques: backpropagation artificial neural networks (ANNs), gradient boosting (GB), random forest (RF), support vector machine (SVM), and K-nearest neighbor (KNN). The aim was to establish a relationship between the dependent variable (UCS) and the independent basic geotechnical properties and to test the effectiveness of each ML algorithm in predicting UCS. The results indicate that the ANN-based model provided the most accurate predictions for UCS, achieving an R2 of 0.83, a root-mean-squared error (RMSE) of 1.11, and a mean absolute relative error (MARE) of 0.42. The performance ranking of the other models, from best to worst, was RF, GB, SV, KNN, MLR, and MNLR.