Urban buzz or urban bust? Beekeeping challenges, suitability, and survival insights in Montreal, Canada

The rising interest in urban beekeeping underscores the need to investigate whether urban habitats are sustainable for managed honeybee populations. This study, conducted on the island of Montreal, Canada, aimed to i) assess honeybee colony survival within an urban environment, ii) determine the primary drivers affecting honeybee colony survival, and iii) explore the potential of urban areas to support beekeeping activities. This study applied two distinct survival analysis methods, namely random survival forests (RSF) and time-dependent Cox models, incorporating both static and dynamic geospatial variables including normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), digital elevation model (DEM), percentages of urban areas and water, floral source diversity, road density, proximity to roads, surrounding hive count, ozone (O₃) concentration, fine particulate matter (PM2.5) levels, maximum temperature, and precipitation. To reflect typical honeybee foraging ranges, two buffer distances (1 km and 3 km) were analyzed, and model performance was assessed using the concordance index (C-index) and integrated Brier score (IBS). For the 1 km buffer, the RSF model achieved a C-index of 0.90 (training) and 0.82 (test) with IBS scores of 0.06 and 0.10, outperforming the Cox model, which showed a C-index of 0.56 (both training and test) and IBS values of 0.19 and 0.18. At 3 km, RSF further improved (C-index: 0.93 (training) and 0.84 (test); IBS: 0.05 (training) and 0.08 (test)), while the Cox model remained lower (C-index: 0.58 (training) and 0.60 (test); IBS: 0.19 (training) and 0.18 (test)). These results confirm RSF's superior performance and suggest that broader spatial context may enhance prediction accuracy. Additionally, our findings revealed that the surrounding hive count was the strongest predictor of beehive survival in both buffer scenarios. At 1 km, road proximity and elevation (i.e., DEM) followed in importance, while at 3 km, elevation and vegetation density (i.e., NDVI) were more influential. A primary outcome of this study was the generation of spatially explicit beehive habitat suitability maps for Montreal. Averaged over 2017–2021, these maps showed that large portions of the island are favorable for urban beekeeping, with 30.94 % of land classified as highly suitable and 38.28 % as moderately suitable, demonstrating strong potential for sustainable apiculture in urban environments. This study contributes to providing insights into urban planning and managed honeybee conservation through suitability mapping and predictor analysis. • Urban beekeeping viability is assessed using survival models. • RSF outperformed time-dependent Cox in predicting beehive survival. • Surrounding hive count emerged as the top survival predictor. • Spatial maps identified over 69 % of Montreal Island as suitable for beekeeping. • Broader spatial buffers improved model performance and prediction accuracy.