Variability in the Grades Teachers Give: Teacher Grade Value-Add, Mismatch, and Long-Term Effects

We identify systematic differences in ninth-grade teachers’ effects on students’ course grades in their class (ninth-grade grade value-add), their persistent effects on students’ grades in the same subject of the next grade (tenth-grade grade value-add, representing effectiveness at academic preparation), and mismatch between the grades they give and students’ subsequent performance (representing inaccurate measurement). Persistent effects and mismatch contribute to observed variation in grades. Teacher effects are stable across years, and their effects are predictive of students’ long-term outcomes, including eleventh-grade ACT scores, graduating GPA, and high school graduation. Persistent effects show consistent long-term benefits, while the relationship of grading mismatch with academic outcomes is nuanced.