A Dynamic Simulation Model of Java Long Pepper (Piper retrofractum Vahl) business process Resilience to Climate Change

Abstract The problem of Java long pepper’s availability and low productivity in Indonesia is caused by various factors, including climate, social, and lack of intensive cultivation. Strategies are needed to improve the quality and quantity of production to provide more significant economic benefits for communities. The research aims to develop a business operation model for Java Long Pepper (JLP) commodities to fulfill local and export demand by considering technical, social, and climate change factors. This research used a dynamic simulation model to build a simulation model of the JLP business process, starting from the cultivation and supply-demand analysis for local and export needs. Data was collected from historical data on the number of JLP supplies, farming productivity, regional and export needs, and the climate. The conceptual and simulation models built can describe the actual system of the Java Long Pepper commodity business process. The output can project the harvests or supplies of Java Long Pepper for the next ten years. The third scenario is the most effective and optimal one to implement in the Java Long Pepper availability system, which suggests that expanding agricultural land, applying the right technological advances, and using superior seed varieties will increase the output of Java Long Pepper plants. This study will enhance the previous research on medical plants, especially JLP commodities. This research provides a new comprehensive model simulation of the JLP Business process, which integrates social, economic, and environmental factors. This research provides a method for managing the JLP medical plant business process, which starts from cultivation intensification to logistics and distribution management processes. The commodity’s supply chain is described in a conceptual model, including the cultivation process, conservation land, marketing, supply-demand calculation, and profitability. Decision-makers or the government could apply the model to estimate and develop a Java long pepper availability strategy to fulfill the local dan export demand.