When Panethnic Primes Get Trumped: Unpacking Latinx Voter Preferences in the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election

Abstract Throughout his presidency, Trump employed exclusionary rhetoric and implemented policies that targeted Latinxs. Based on prior research on the political effects of co-ethnic group-based attacks, many expected Latinxs to close ranks and mobilize against Trump in 2020. Yet a larger percentage of Latinx voters supported Trump in 2020 than in 2016. Drawing on a representative survey of Latinxs, we examine the characteristics of the Latinx electorate that predicted support for Trump in 2020. Additionally, using a survey experiment fielded before the 2020 election, we find that neither Trump’s exclusionary rhetoric nor his COVID-19 policies harming Latinx communities caused Latinx Trump supporters to defect. Instead, only those already predisposed to support Democrats, but ambivalent about Biden, were moved to punish Trump when informed of his COVID-19 policies negatively affecting their co-ethnics. Our results suggest that the relationship between co-ethnic group-based attacks and Latinx political behavior may be weakening over time.