Forecasting the Recycled Material Content of EV Batteries in Korea

The European Union (EU) has established the EU Battery Regulation, mandating minimum percentage of recycled materials for cobalt, nickel, and lithium by 2031 and 2036. In order for Korean automakers to continue exporting domestic EVs and batteries, it is crucial to assess whether the required recycled material content set by the EU can be met. In response, this study conducted a quantitative analysis using dynamic material flow analysis (dMFA) to forecast the recycled material content of EV batteries in Korea focusing on cobalt, nickel, and lithium. The results of our dMFA revealed that cobalt would not meet the EU’s mandatory content requirement, while the gap between the required and actual content for nickel and lithium is gradually decreasing. These results suggest that proactive efforts by the Korean automotive and battery industries are necessary to secure recycled materials in preparation for the EU Battery Regulation. In particular, various technological and policy measures will be required to ensure a stable supply of recycled materials and to reduce the demand for battery raw materials.