The Impact of Thermal Shocks on Agricultural Cultivated Areas: A Case Study of Wheat, Tomato, and Cucumber in Bazian Plain (1993–2023), Iraq.

This study evaluates the impact of thermal shock on agricultural land cultivated with wheat, tomato, and cucumber in Sulaymaniyah province, northern Iraq, over a 30-year period (1993–2023). Thermal shock, defined as sudden and significant fluctuations in temperature, was analyzed using annual average data, which ranged from a low of 16.42°C in 2012 to a high of 20.66°C in 2019. The study examined cultivated area records for the three crops to assess the influence of thermal variations on agricultural productivity and land use. The findings reveal that wheat, a staple crop in the region, demonstrated notable resilience to thermal fluctuations. The cultivated area for wheat increased steadily from 25,300 dunams in 1993 to 35,000 dunams in 2023, despite exposure to varying degrees of thermal shock. In contrast, tomato and cucumber crops exhibited significantly higher sensitivity to temperature variability. Tomato cultivation, which peaked at 8,500 dunams in 2000, experienced a drastic decline to 140 dunams by 2023, particularly during periods of elevated average thermal shocks. Similarly, cucumber cultivation experienced substantial fluctuations, with a peak of 450 dunams in 2012, which decreased sharply to 100 dunams by 2023. However, climate change was not the only reason for the decrease in agricultural areas, as the spread of greenhouse cultivation contributed to the decrease in field agricultural areas. These results underscore the contrasting levels of vulnerability among different crops, with wheat benefiting from inherent resilience mechanisms, while tomatoes and cucumbers are more susceptible to adverse climatic conditions. The study highlights the critical need for implementing climate-resilient agricultural strategies tailored to mitigate the effects of thermal shocks. Such interventions are essential for ensuring the sustainable cultivation of sensitive crops and supporting the long-term economic stability of the agricultural sector in Sulaymaniyah.