Species distribution modeling of red hawthorn (Crataegus monogyna Jacq.) in response to climate change

This study aimed to estimate the current and future potential status of Crataegus monogyna Jacq. which is one of the important Non-Wood Forest Product (NWFPs) species in the Bozdaglar Mountains in the Aegean Region of Türkiye. MaxEnt method was used for potential distribution modelling and mapping of the target species. Climate data were obtained from the WorldClim database. Data on future climate conditions were downloaded from the UKESM1-0-LL projection for the years 2081-2100. As a result of the modelling process, the AUC value of the training dataset was 0.802 and the test dataset AUC value was 0.609. The variables shaping the model were BIO12 (annual precipitation), BIO7 (temperature annual range (BIO5-BIO6)), HI (heat index), TPI (topographical position index), and BIO13 (precipitation of wettest month). We found that the suitable distribution area of the target species, which is currently 182,214 ha, is estimated to decrease by 7,311 ha under the worst-case scenario SSP5 8.5, whereas the unsuitable area, which is currently 75,490 ha, is estimated to increase by 250,393 ha. The findings obtained in this study will aid in developing site-specific conservation strategies and management plans relevant to forestry.