Construction Concrete Price Prediction Based on a Double-Branch Physics-Informed Neural Network

Traditional price prediction of construction material concrete often adopts macroeconomic indicators as independent variables. However, since there is often a closer relationship between the raw materials of construction concrete and the production of construction materials, the price prediction of construction concrete based on raw material prices can more directly ensure the prediction accuracy. Therefore, this study proposes a Double-Branch Physics-Informed Neural Network (DB-PINN) model based on both macroeconomic indicators and raw material price factors for the construction concrete price prediction. In particular, this model utilizes an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) as the baseline algorithm and incorporates physical constraints, such as a Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) model and a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) to modify the loss function. To improve the prediction accuracy of the DB-PINN model, a feature analysis of the effect of the raw material price factors on the construction concrete price is conducted. Results showed that the proposed DB-PINN model has high accuracy in concrete price prediction. Further, to explore the specific ways in which macroeconomic indicators affect the concrete price prediction, a Marginal Effect Analysis (MEA) is conducted. Moreover, a comparative analysis using a traditional ANN model is conducted to verify the efficiency of the DB-PINN model, and a parameter sensitivity analysis is performed to reveal the impact of each raw material price factor and macroeconomic indicator on the construction concrete price. This study incorporates the introduction of raw material prices as input parameters for construction concrete price prediction, which facilitates the development of urban construction concrete price management in the pre-project phase.