Declining Lake Water Levels and Suitable Wind Conditions Promote Locust Outbreaks and Migration in the Kazakhstan–China Area

Outbreaks of locust plagues are becoming increasingly frequent against the backdrop of climate change. Locust outbreaks in the Caucasus and Central Asia, especially in Kazakhstan, pose continuous threats to neighboring countries, including China, Kyrgyzstan, and more. However, locust outbreak forecasts and migration movement are yet to be studied in this area. In our study, we collected water level data in major lakes and water bodies, as well as annual average precipitation in the past 15 years in Kazakhstan, to analyze their contributions to locust outbreaks. Multiple linear regression analysis revealed a significant negative correlation between overall lake water level and the following year’s locust outbreak area in Kazakhstan. Considering that the overall lake water levels in 2023 and 2024 reached a quite low level historically, we predicted heavy locust outbreaks in 2025. Furthermore, through wind field analysis and wind-born trajectory modeling, we identified two migration routes of locusts from Kazakhstan into Xinjiang, China, riding the northwest wind, with lakes near the Sino-Kazakhstan border as the main sources. Overall, our study identified high locust outbreak challenges in Kazakhstan in recent years and determined two wind-supported migration routes of locusts invading China, which are significant for guiding monitoring and prevention efforts in the Sino-Kazakhstan border area.