Forecasting the Need for Medico-Psychological Rehabilitation among Law Enforcement Officers of the Russian Federation after Experiencing Mental Disorders

Background : the increase in the number of extreme situations threatening the life and health of law enforcement officers leads to the formation of maladaptive reactions and the development of clinical symptoms of mental maladaptation, which dictates the need to improve the quality of preventive and curative care, as well as to improve organizational approaches based on scientific analysis of morbidity. The aim was to assess the dynamics of desadaptation disorders prevalence and give a forecast of the need for employees of the internal affairs bodies of the Russian Federation in medical and psychological rehabilitation (MPR) after suffering borderline mental disorders. Materials and Methods : in order to assess the dynamics and predict the need for internal affairs officers in medical and psychological rehabilitation after borderline mental disorders, an analysis of statistical reporting forms for the period 2008-2023, according to the V class of diseases according to the International Classification of Diseases (ICD-10) was carried out. The study included disorders with a good prognosis and stable remission of painful manifestations after complex therapy. These disorders do not prevent the continuation of service as police officers and relate to ICD-10 categories: organic, including symptomatic mental disorders (F00–F09), mood disorders (affective disorders) (F30–F39), neurotic, stress related and somatoform disorders (F40–F48). The need indicators were calculated per 1,000 employees or in ppm (%). At the first stage of analysis, forecasting was calculated without taking into account external factors. At the second stage, the model was built taking into account the main external factor such as a participation in hostilities. To predict the need for MPR for the period 2024 and 2025, the ARIMA model was applied, the quality of the model was evaluated using the Akaike information criterion (AIC), the Bayesian information criterion (BIC), the Ljung-Box test for diagnosing autocorrelation of residues, the confidence interval was denoted as — CI. The Dickey-Fuller test (ADF) was used to check the stationarity of the time series. To determine the trend of acceleration and deceleration of the trend, an assessment of the change in the growth rate of need was carried out using the first and second derivatives. Results : an analysis of the dynamics of the need for ATS employees to conduct MPR after suffering mental disorders shows the variability of indicators for all groups of mental health disorders studied. The forecast model, built taking into account an external factor — the performance of operational and combat tasks in special conditions, demonstrates the expected increase in the MPR need for police officers in 2024 and 2025, which is associated with an increase in the number of extreme situations faced by employees, and, as a result, with an increase in mental maladaptation. Conclusions : further research and monitoring of the factors influencing the need for medical and psychological rehabilitation are critically important for improving the quality of rehabilitation measures and improving the mental health of police officers. The prospects for further research lie in the development of more accurate models for predicting the need for MPR, taking into account not only external stress factors, but also the individual characteristics of employees, which will optimize rehabilitation programs and increase their effectiveness in conditions of increasing professional loads.