Evolution of Potential Distribution Areas and Cultivation Zones of Morchella esculenta (L.) Pers. Under Climate Warming: Application of Ensemble Models and Production Dynamics Models

Under global climate change, sustainable management of plant resources in alpine canyon regions faces severe challenges. <i>M. esculenta</i>, highly valued for its edible and medicinal properties, is widely harvested for consumption by residents in the upper Dadu River-Minjiang River region. This study employs ensemble models to simulate the potential distribution of <i>M. esculenta</i> in this region, predicting the impacts of future climate change on its distribution, centroid migration of suitable habitats, and niche dynamics. Additionally, a production dynamics model integrating ecological suitability and nutritional components was developed to delineate current and future potential cultivation zones for <i>M. esculenta</i>. The results indicate that current high-suitability areas and core cultivation zones of <i>M. esculenta</i> are predominantly distributed in a patchy and fragmented pattern. The high-suitability habitats in the upper Dadu River-Minjiang River region have three distribution centers: the largest spans southern Danba County, southern Jinchuan County, and northeastern Kangding City, while the other two are located in northeastern Li County, southwestern Aba County, and northwestern Ma'erkang City, with sporadic distributions in Heishui County, Maoxian County, and Wenchuan County. First-level cultivation areas are primarily concentrated in Kangding City, Danba County, Ma'erkang City, Li County, and surrounding regions. Under climate change, low-suitability areas and third-level cultivation zones for <i>M. esculenta</i> in the region have increased significantly, while high- and medium-suitability areas, along with first- and second-level cultivation zones, have decreased notably. Concurrently, suitable habitats and cultivation zones exhibit a migration trend toward higher northern latitudes. The most pronounced changes in suitable areas and cultivation zones, as well as the largest niche migration, occur under the high-emission climate scenario. This study facilitates the formulation of suitability-based management strategies for <i>M. esculenta</i> in the upper Dadu River-Minjiang River region and provides a scientific reference for the sustainable utilization of mountain plant resources under climate change.