Low-Carbon Restructuring, R&D Investment, and Supply Chain Resilience: A U-Shaped Relationship

Low-carbon restructuring serves as a critical strategy for enterprises to achieve the “dual-carbon” target and foster sustainable development, whereas supply chain resilience is essential for maintaining competitiveness in complex environments. Based on the data of Chinese A-share listed companies in the manufacturing industry from 2011 to 2023, this paper empirically examines the relationship between low-carbon restructuring, R&D investment, and supply chain resilience. This study reveals a U-shaped relationship between low-carbon restructuring and supply chain resilience, with an inflection point at approximately 2.34. R&D investment significantly strengthens supply chain resilience and positively moderates the relationship by accelerating technological synergies and optimizing resource allocation. Further analysis shows that heavily polluted industries face more pressure in the early stage of low-carbon restructuring compared to non-heavily polluted industries, but R&D investment has a more significant moderating effect on heavily polluted industries. The prediction results based on the Holt–Winters model show that the level of low-carbon restructuring in China’s manufacturing industry will increase steadily in the next seven years, with an average annual growth rate of about 0.021. These new findings are important for managers and researchers to improve supply chain resilience during the low-carbon transition process.