A possibility evaluation model for road transportation of hazardous chemicals based on Bow-tie theory and Bayesian model

The complexity and diversity of road transport environments and the unique nature of hazardous chemicals pose significant challenges in quantifying the risk of accidents in the transport of hazardous chemicals, and further research is still needed to assess the possibility of real-time accidents. In this study, 1,115 Chinese hazardous chemical road transport accidents are analysed, and 120 accident chains are constructed to reveal the development law of the accidents. Based on the Bow-tie theory, a qualitative inference Bow-tie diagram for multi-hazard coupled accidents in road transport of hazardous chemicals was constructed to show the evolution of the accidents. The mapping relationship between the Bow-tie diagram and the Bayesian network is established, and the Bayesian network structure is constructed to achieve the dynamic real-time accident possibility assessment combining quantitative and qualitative. In the example application, data collection every 30 s, and real-time accident probability calculations are realised, which verifies the feasibility and reasonableness of the model and method in this study and has important theoretical significance and application value for the prevention of road transport accidents of hazardous chemicals.