Research on Low-Carbon Development Strategies of E-Commerce Supply Chain Considering Lag Effect and Absorptive Capacity

在“双碳”目标背景下，减排研发已成为电商平台推动低碳转型的关键途径。本文构建包含供应商、低碳型电商平台与传统型电商平台的供应链结构，基于纵向、横向、双向三种吸收方向，构建微分博弈模型，研究不同情形下滞后效应和吸收能力对电商平台低碳发展策略的影响。研究发现：1) 纵向吸收下，低碳平台的研发投入随滞后时间增加而上升，受供应商吸收能力正向影响；传统平台的研发投入则受吸收能力调节，且与低碳竞争强度相关，当低碳竞争强度较低时，传统制造商的研发努力投入与供应商的吸收能力呈正相关，反之则负相关。2) 横向与双向吸收下，传统平台吸收能力在特定阈值内时，低碳平台研发随滞后时间增加而增强，超出阈值则受抑制，且其研发努力整体上受传统平台吸收能力负向影响；3) 双向情形下，当低碳竞争强度在特定阈值内时，传统平台的研发努力投入与供应商的吸收能力呈正相关，超出阈值时，供应商的吸收能力会抑制其研发努力。本文旨在为电商平台制定低碳发展策略和技术扩散路径提供决策参考，也为政府制定差异化减排激励政策、构建低碳协同创新生态体系提供理论依据。Under the background of the “dual carbon” goals, emission reduction R&D has become a key approach for e-commerce platforms to promote low-carbon transformation. This paper constructs a supply chain structure consisting of a supplier, a low-carbon e-commerce platform, and a traditional e-commerce platform. Based on three technology absorption directions—vertical, horizontal, and bidirectional—we develop a differential game model to examine how lag effects and absorptive capacity influence low-carbon development strategies of e-commerce platforms under different scenarios. The results show that: 1) Under vertical absorption, the low-carbon platform’s R&D efforts increase with longer lag time and are positively influenced by the supplier’s absorptive capacity. The traditional platform’s R&D input is regulated by the supplier’s absorptive capacity and varies with the intensity of low-carbon competition. When competition is weak, the traditional platform’s R&D effort is positively correlated with the supplier’s absorptive capacity, and negatively correlated when competition is strong. 2) Under horizontal and bidirectional absorption, the low-carbon platform’s R&D increases with lag time only when the traditional platform’s absorptive capacity remains within a certain threshold; exceeding this threshold suppresses its R&D efforts. In general, the low-carbon platform’s R&D is negatively affected by the traditional platform’s absorptive capacity. 3) In the bidirectional case, the traditional platform’s R&D effort is positively related to the supplier’s absorptive capacity when the low-carbon competition intensity is within a specific range, but this relationship becomes negative once the intensity exceeds the threshold. This study aims to provide decision-making references for e-commerce platforms in formulating low-carbon strategies and technology diffusion paths, and offers theoretical guidance for policymakers to design differentiated emission reduction incentives and build a collaborative low-carbon innovation ecosystem.