MODELING THE EFFECTS OF VACCINATING STRATEGIES AND PERIODIC OUTBREAKS ON DENGUE IN SINGAPORE

Effective vaccination strategies can significantly reduce virus transmission, while periodic outbreaks require model prediction and early intervention to mitigate their impact. A novel dengue epidemic model with periodicity and vaccination is introduced in this paper. First, the positivity of solutions and the invariant set are given, and the basic reproduction number is obtained. Then, the disease-free periodic solution is globally asymptotically stable when the basic reproduction number is less than one, and periodic solution is consistent persistence when the basic reproduction number is more than one. Actual data are used to develop more scientific and reasonable prevention and control measures, reducing the transmission risk of dengue fever. Next, based on the dengue fever data in Singapore from 2014 to 2017, the best fitting parameters of such model are determined by using the Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm. Finally, some numerical simulations are carried out. These indicate that vaccination is of great significance to control the spread of disease.