Meteo-Hydrological Context of the February 2024 Urban Flooding Event in My Tho City, Tien Giang Province, Vietnam

Urban flooding in low-lying coastal regions (LCRs) is intensifying due to climate change and sea-level rise; however, the complex interplay of hydrological, climatic, and anthropogenic drivers remains poorly understood. This study investigates the specific meteo-hydrological factors linking climate-induced changes and human activities to the urban flooding event in My Tho City, a vulnerable coastal city in Vietnam's Tien Giang Province, from February 9 to 12, 2024. Analyzing historical meteo-hydrological data (rainfall, monsoon winds, river discharge, and water levels), we examined the contributing factors. Our findings reveal that the flooding was predominantly driven by the combination of high astronomical tidal levels and significant water surges. These surges were amplified by northeast monsoon circulation. This situation was compounded by critically low Mekong River discharge during the dry season, which enhanced the inland penetration of tidal effects. Rainfall during the period was minimal and did not contribute significantly. We utilized a filtering technique to differentiate between astronomical tides and non-tidal surges in the water level data. These results provide empirical evidence demonstrating that climate-driven sea-level influences (manifesting as high tides and surges) and anthropogenic alterations to river flow governed the urban flooding dynamics. The study underscores the urgent need for integrated adaptation solutions addressing the complex land-ocean interactions, particularly in the context of climate change and relative sea-level rise.