Analysis of Current Trends in U.S.-China Policy Interaction on Climate Change - Centering on ‘Carbon Neutrality’ Since the Second Trump Administration Took Office in the U.S.

Against the backdrop of the long-standing U.S.-China rivalry and the anticipated leadership vacuum in the U.S. response to global climate change during the second term of the Trump administration, this thesis explores the future of U.S.-China relations on climate change. To this end, it begins by reviewing the evolution of climate change policy in both the United States and China, the two most influential actors in this domain. Specifically, it examines U.S. climate policy from the Clinton administration through the first Trump administration to the recently concluded Biden administration. For China, the study analyzes relevant policy trends from Xi Jinping’s first term to the present. Based on this historical review, the thesis attempts to project the future trajectory of U.S.-China climate relations. The findings suggest that while opportunities for bilateral cooperation on climate change are likely to diminish during Trump’s second term, they will not be entirely eliminated. Moreover, domestic actors in the United States—including local governments, businesses, academia, and civil society—are expected to continue cooperating with the international community, including China, despite the federal government's stance.