Annual Homicide Rate as a Proxy for Overall Gun-Related Violent Crime: A Retrospective Study

Introduction The annual reporting of homicides often captures the nation's attention, with the unspoken assumption that this serves as a proxy for overall gun-related violent crime. The purpose of this study is to evaluate whether the overall trend in homicide rates accurately reflects the overall trend in gun-related violent crime over time. Methods Using police crime incident data from a large urban city in the southern United States, the total number of gun-related violent crimes, gunshot victims treated at the trauma center, and homicides per year from 2014 to 2020 were recorded. Rates of gunshot victims, gun-related violent crimes, and homicides per 100,000 population were stratified by year and compared over time using simple linear regression. Analysis of covariance (ANCOVA) was then used to compare the rate of increase of homicides to gun-related violent crimes. Results There were 4,928 gun-related violent crimes and 567 homicides over the study period. Linear regression analysis identified a significant increase in gun-related crime rate (201.92 to 447.3 incidents per 100,000 population, p = 0.01) and homicide rate (25.90 to 50.24 incidents per 100,000 population, p = 0.028) from 2014 to 2020. The rate of gunshot victims treated at the trauma center appeared to increase during the study period, although the increase was not statistically significant (57.94 to 125.6 incidents per 100,000 population, p = 0.0624). ANCOVA revealed that gun-related violent crimes increased at a greater rate compared to homicides, with respective slopes of 34.01 (95% CI: 20.49 to 47.54) and 3.36 (95% CI: -15.77 to 36.03). The interaction between year and crime type was statistically significant (p = 0.005), indicating different rates of increase. Conclusion Annual homicide rates should be interpreted with caution, as they may not accurately reflect the true extent of gun violence in communities. Broadening our understanding represents the first step in preventing continued increases in this major public health problem.