Implications of Climate Change on PV Generation in Semi-Arid Zones

Abstract Adopting photovoltaic (PV) solar energy in regions with abundant sunshine offers a promising pathway for transitioning towards renewable energy sources. However, deploying PV solar energy faces challenges posed by climate change, which can potentially undermine its effectiveness and reliability. One significant concern is the impact of rising temperatures on the efficiency of PV panels, which can lead to reduced electricity production. Using in-depth simulations with PVsyst software, this study investigates the possible impacts of climate change on PV performance in the Cold Desert (BWk) Climate Zone. Future scenarios for 2060 was forecast and examined 1 MW PV systems in the current environment. Low precipitation, hot summers, and frigid winters are the hallmarks of the BWk Climate Zone. According to the simulation results, horizontal diffuse irradiation (DiffHor) increased from 488.51 kWh/m² to 553.15 kWh/m², whereas global horizontal irradiation (GlobHor) decreased somewhat from 2230.4 kWh/m² to 2154.8 kWh/m². The annual average ambient temperature (T_Amb) increased from 18.51 °C to 20.07 °C. Despite these modifications, there were only slight decreases in effective global irradiation (GlobEff) and worldwide incidence irradiation on the collector plane (GlobInc). Consequently, there was a slight decline of 0.021 % in the energy injected into the grid (E_Grid), which went from 33 928.7 kWh to 33 856.5 kWh per year. These findings suggest that while higher temperatures may slightly impact PV efficiency, the overall effect on PV production in the BWk Climate Zone is minimal. This study highlights the resilience of PV systems in cold desert climates and the importance of considering regional climatic conditions in solar energy planning.