Fuzzy Comprehensive Risk Evaluation of China’s Metro Transportation Public-Private Partnership Projects

Abstract The Public-Private Partnership (PPP) model has been widely adopted in China’s metro infrastructure to enhance resource allocation efficiency. However, PPP projects have a long life cycle and diverse risk factors, and effective risk assessment is thereby essential to achieve project success. This study develops a fuzzy comprehensive risk evaluation model by integrating the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation methods. A comprehensive risk indicator set consisting of 11 dimensions and 45 indicators is established, and AHP method is applied to calculate indicators importance weights. Subsequently, the weights are combined with fuzzy mathematical theory to quantitatively assess the risk levels by calculating the risk level scores. Then, by applying this model to the Tianjin Metro Line 7 Phase 1 project, the study identifies that political, construction phase, financing phase, economic, and legal risks as the five key risk indicators, while external and social risks are found to be less significant. The overall project risk level is assessed as above-moderate. Moreover, expert interpretation is conducted to discuss results and propose risk management strategies for key risk indicators. This study validates the fuzzy comprehensive risk evaluation model through case application, provides practical reference for risk management in PPP metro projects.