Changing Religious Affiliation Among Older Australians: Estimates and Projections to Mid-century

Abstract The purpose of this study was to investigate shifting religious affiliation of the older Australian population to mid-century. Projections were produced with a cohort-component model classified by both country/region of birth and religious affiliation and divided by sex and five-year age groups. By mid-century, we project a rapid increase in the percentage of people reporting ‘No religion’ (+ 82%, + 8.65 million), alongside a decrease in Christian religions (from 55% to 30% of the population) and increases in Hinduism (169%, +1.2 million), Islam (106%, +913k), and Buddhism (40%, +255k). Natural change, net religious movement, and net overseas migration play differing roles across each of the major religion groups studied. In contrast to the broader population results, within the 65+ year population, we project an increase in Catholicism (mostly 80 + years), with relative stability in Anglican and Congressional affiliation to mid-century. However, if the projection horizon is extended beyond 2051, declines for these Christian affiliations are likely. Among the older population, greater diversity in religious affiliation is projected relative to the past, with non-Christian religions experiencing considerable growth, albeit from a low population base. The most significant change in the older population is very significant growth (179%, + 1.92 million) in the 65+ population reporting no religious affiliation to mid-century. Our study shows that by mid-century, there will be a major transformation in the Australian aged care landscape from a majority Christian-affiliated sector servicing a majority Christian-population to a majority Christian-affiliated sector servicing a religiously pluralist population.