Geospatial analysis of the fire incidents and burned areas induced by Russia-Ukraine war in 2022 using MODIS and VIIRS data

Abstract Wildfire incidents and their impact on the environment and socio-economic factors have been of major concern globally. Consequently, several studies sought to understand the influence of climate change-related extreme conditions and anthropogenic activities on wildfire occurrence and regimes and their subsequent impact on biodiversity, ecosystems, soil sustainability, air quality, and atmospheric processes. The current study particularly focuses on the additional pressure exerted by armed conflicts and wars, often overshadowed by more immediate concerns such as saving lives. Specifically, we explored the influence of the Russia-Ukraine war, that began in February 2022, on fire incidents and burned areas in Ukraine. We conducted a comparative analysis of MODIS and VIIRS active fire products to characterise spatio-temporal patterns of fire incidence hotspots between 2021 (pre-war) and 2022 (during the war). The results revealed a higher number of significant fire incident hotspots at a 95% confidence level and higher burning in 2022, particularly in croplands and forests, which has implications for food security and environmental sustainability in Europe. The forests were impacted as part of the war-related activities near Chornobyl Nuclear Power Station in northern Ukraine, while most croplands were burned in the eastern parts. The study also revealed that MODIS and VIIRS varied spatially and temporally in detecting fire incidents and hotspots, with VIIRS exhibiting significantly more fire incidents per land cover class ( p < 0.02), and hotspots across all seasons. This finding is consistent with previous studies that found that VIIRS detects significantly more fires than MODIS. Furthermore, the spatio-temporal distributions of fire hotspots were mostly consistent with reports of war-related activities by Armed Conflict and Location Dataset. By evaluating the MODIS and VIIRS fire products, this study underscores the potential of remote sensing data in assessing war-induced fire incidents and their environmental consequences, which may persist for a long time after the war.