Spatial and temporal evolutionary patterns and impact mechanisms of green development in arid zones: Evidence from Xinjiang, China

A three-dimensional composite indicator system encompassing ‘green growth, green welfare, and green wealth’ was developed for 14 prefectures and municipalities in Xinjiang. This framework aims to illuminate the spatial and temporal evolution patterns and influence mechanisms of green development in the region, thereby providing empirical insights for sustainable practices in arid areas. The findings indicate that: (1) the level of green development in Xinjiang exhibited a fluctuating upward trend from 2001 to 2021; (2) the green development index revealed significant spatial differentiation, characterized by a concentration of development in the north and dispersion in the south; and (3) panel regression model analysis identified nine core factors, including SO 2 emissions per 10,000 yuan of GDP and per capita water consumption, as critical drivers of green development. The driving mechanisms are analyzed through the lenses of inter-regional geography, developmental philosophies, demand structures, economic conditions, spatial configurations, and inter-regional relations, culminating in the development of a sustainable model emphasizing ‘ecological protection, economic growth, and regional synergy.’ Furthermore, proposing strategic options for regional green development—such as enhancing awareness of green practices, improving environmental management systems, promoting industrial transformation towards greener practices, and establishing effective spatial governance—is crucial for addressing the ecological and environmental challenges faced by arid and semi-arid zones. These strategies are vital for advancing the achievement of global sustainable development goals.