Risk Spillover Effect of China-ASEAN Supply Chains

As labour costs in China increase, labour-intensive industries are migrating to ASEAN countries, attracted by lower labour costs and market potential. This shift not only affects the economies of China and ASEAN but also reshapes the global manufacturing landscape. This paper investigates the correlation and spillover of supply chain risks using production exposure indicators derived from inter-country input-output data and the R-Vine Copula model. We assess the risk spillover of each country within the global supply chain. Our findings indicate that industrial relocation can significantly alter supply chain structures, thereby affecting the concentration and direction of risks. While China's role in the global textile supply chain has diminished, it remains significant, with notable increases in the roles of Vietnam and Thailand. This research reveals the supply chain risks between China and ASEAN in the context of industrial transfer, exploring the sustainable development of production linkages and sustainable economic cooperation among countries.