Bucking the suppression status quo: incentives to shift the wildfire management paradigm around natural ignitions

Abstract Background Wildfire policy has evolved rapidly over the past three decades, necessitating repeated shifts in management and communication strategies for US land management agencies. One growing focus considers the use of “other than full suppression” (OTFS) strategies, where managers use natural ignitions to achieve management objectives when conditions allow. While policy and guidance give managers operational flexibility, various sociopolitical, operational, and organizational factors contribute to risk aversion that inhibits OTFS use. This research investigates if wildfire management professionals in the Southwest US can reach consensus on incentives used to promote OTFS management. Results Using a Delphi approach, whereby individual participants complete anonymous iterative surveys and provide feedback on group responses, wildfire management professionals in Arizona and New Mexico provided input on which incentives would have the greatest impact on use of OTFS strategies and how feasible implementation would be. Consistent public support from agency leadership, financial rewards for successful use of OTFS strategies, and allowing acres burned by OTFS wildfires to count toward regional treatment targets were among the most impactful in the eyes of participants. Conclusions These results suggest that incentivizing OTFS management requires a combination of policy adjustment and agency alignment to better leverage wildfire for ecosystem restoration.