DISEASE DYNAMICS OF STOCHASTIC SEIQHR MODEL WITH DISPERSAL

Extinction of disease is one of the core concerns in epidemiology. In stochastic setup, this issue can be handled by analyzing extinction probability and finite extinction time, a unique characteristic of stochastic epidemic models. This paper orbits around these two quantities to analyze the extinction of a continuous time Markov chain (CTMC) model corresponding to a deterministic formulation with quarantine and hospitalization. More specifically, extinction probability of the disease is analyzed with the help of a three type branching process approximation. Impact of dispersal is also considered with two patches of population having contrasting dynamics. Finally, impact of vaccination on the total outbreak size is estimated with some reasonable assumptions on the corresponding CTMC formulation. Numerical outcomes suggest the superiority of the hospitalization process over the quarantine strategy. Transitioning to an area with improved epidemic criteria in light of the uneven distribution of the patches would be an effective pandemic response.