Multidimensional Risk Assessment in Sustainable Coal Supply Chains for China’s Low-Carbon Transition: An AHP-FCE Framework

Driven by the global energy transition and the pursuit of “dual carbon” goals, sustainability risks within the coal supply chain have emerged as a central obstacle impeding the low-carbon transformation of high-carbon industries. To address the critical gap in systematic and multidimensional risk assessments for coal supply chains, this study proposes a hybrid framework that integrates the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) with the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation (FCE) method. Utilizing the Delphi method and the coefficient of variation technique, this study develops a risk assessment system encompassing eight primary criteria and forty sub-criteria. These indicators cover economic, operational safety, ecological and environmental, management policy, demand, sustainable supply, information technology, and social risks. An empirical analysis is conducted, using a prominent Chinese coal enterprise as a case study. The findings demonstrate that the overall risk level of the enterprise is “moderate”, with demand risk, information technology risk, and social risk ranking as the top three concerns. This underscores the substantial impact of accelerated energy substitution, digital system vulnerabilities, and stakeholder conflicts on supply chain resilience. Further analysis elucidates the transmission mechanisms of critical risk nodes, including financing constraints, equipment modernization delays, and deficiencies in end-of-pipe governance. Targeted strategies are proposed, such as constructing a diversified financing matrix, developing a blockchain-based data-sharing platform, and establishing a community co-governance mechanism. These measures offer scientific decision-making support for the coal industry’s efforts to balance “ensuring supply” with “reducing carbon emissions”, and provide a replicable risk assessment paradigm for the sustainable transformation of global high-carbon supply chains.