Variance gamma process parameter estimation for structural capacity degradation

Variance gamma process is proposed for modelling structural capacity loss for exisitng structures and benefits of this approach are identified.Variance gamma process (VGP) is a jump Levy process where the process increments follow gamma distribution.The VGP modelling can be expressed as a difference of two gamma processes, thus increasing the number of parameters that can be used to describe the status of the structure and potential degradation scenarios, while retaining relative simplicity that gamma distributions offer.This paper proposes that standard methods for parameter estimation can be implemented for variance gamma process parameters.With rapidly increasing data availability from diverse infrastructure monitoring technologies the VGP approach presents tool that can improve maintenance planning.Beyond maintenance planning, a major benefit from variance gamma process implementation would be in cases where natural hazards, such as earthquakes or floods, create a disruption point in the service life profile.