A framework for reduction of wind-intensified wildfires caused by failures in power distribution systems

In Southern California, hot and dry seasonal weather effects such as Santa Ana winds are major wildfire drivers.Such events not only make vegetation dry, creating fuel for wildfires, but they also inflict damage to power system equipment, causing conductors to fall on the ground resulting in sparks and excessive heat that may ignite wildfires.The existing literature on this subject reveals several limitations that have not been properly addressed.No study provides seasonal hazard models for hot and dry wind events in the current literature.There is also a notable gap in models that estimate the probability of fire ignition due to wind-induced failures in power system components, particularly those associated with fallen trees.Lastly, there is a lack of a probabilistic model for the degradation of power system components against fire, especially for wood poles.This study develops a comprehensive framework to assess and mitigate wildfire risks to power systems.The framework first develops a joint probability distribution based on the maximum monthly wind speeds and integrates them through a sequential Monte Carlo process to predict wind events.Second, wildfire ignition probability due to power system failures, incorporating physics-based models for tree failures, conductor impacts, and vegetation ignition is developed.Third, a probabilistic wildfire progression model that considers various factors influencing fire behavior and its effects on power systems is developed.Finally, the framework investigates the impact of wildfire on wood poles through a heat transfer analysis and estimation of charring.Results indicate that the frequency of wildfire incidents and the resulting extent of damage can be substantially reduced through strategic tree density management.This study offers utility managers and regulators a framework for improving the power system components' risk to fire exposure.