Framework for performance assessment of bridges under flood considering climate change

As the frequency and intensity of extreme rainfall increase due to climate change, flood-induced hazards pose a growing threat to the structural integrity of bridge systems.While considerable research has addressed changes in flood magnitude associated with climate scenarios, relatively few studies have focused on the performance assessment of bridges under such conditions.This study proposes a comprehensive framework for evaluating bridge system performance under flood hazards, incorporating the influence of climate change.The framework integrates climate projection data, hydrological modeling, hydraulic analysis, structural simulation, and reliability assessment.First, probabilistic rainfall intensities for various durations are derived using Representative Concentration Pathways scenarios provided by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, combined with a conditional copula model and frequency analysis using FARD2006.Second, the HEC-HMS model is used to simulate flood discharges based on probabilistic rainfall and HEC-RAS is employed to simulate flow velocity, water surface elevation.Finally, the probability of bridge failure is evaluated using fragility curves developed through a Python-based interface linking FERUM (Finite Element Reliability Using MATLAB) and ABAQUS, and the failure probabilities were derived under various climate change scenarios to account for the effects of future flood hazards on structural performance.The proposed framework is demonstrated through a case study of the Jungnangcheon river watershed in Seoul, South Korea.The findings offer practical insights for updating bridge design standards and developing maintenance strategies in the face of evolving climate risks. INTRODUCTIONWith the increasing frequency and intensity of extreme rainfall due to climate change, critical infrastructure such as bridges is becoming more vulnerable to flood-induced structural