A probabilistic framework to assess multi-hazard risks associated with concurrent and sequential events

Critical infrastructure systems are exposed to various natural hazards.These hazards may be induced by events such as earthquakes and hurricanes that can occur concurrently or in sufficiently close succession that the effects of one hazard are not mitigated before the occurrence of the next hazard.The impacts of these hazards can result in component-and system-level failures and significant economic loss.Although single-hazard probabilistic risk assessment approaches have been extensively used to study each of these hazards, there is a limited number of studies that have attempted to analyze the relationships between multiple hazards and assess their risks probabilistically.This paper (extended abstract) aims to 1) summarize the findings of a literature review focused on multi-hazard fragility modeling, considering the interactions between wind and ground motion hazards, and 2) describe ongoing efforts to create a Bayesian Network (BN) framework for assessing multi-hazard risk that affects a spatially distributed system.The proposed framework is capable of modeling the concurrent and sequential relationships of the hazards and assessing their impacts on the performance of the distributed system.accurate risk estimation and supporting informed decision-making for infrastructure resilience under multi-hazard conditions.Next, this paper summarizes the results of ongoing efforts to develop a Bayesian Network (BN) framework for multi-hazard risk assessment models for spatially-distributed infrastructure, adapting it to the context of systems subject to hurricane-induced winds and earthquake-induced ground motion.The presented BN framework probabilistically models the concurrent and sequential relationships between winds and ground motions in hazard, fragility, and system performance modules.