Data- and simulation-supported system reliability assessment of bridges subjected to extreme floods and climate change

The acknowledged high failure rate of bridges worldwide due to hydraulic events and its projected increase due to climate change imposes a significant challenge in bridge management.This study performs a system reliability assessment of a bridge subjected to extreme flooding events and climate change by integrating simulation discharge data and public databases.Considering different climate change scenarios, the bridge's failure probability is calculated along with its variability due to fluctuations in LQI-acceptability criteria.The results show that ignoring climate change can lead to overestimating the bridge's capacity, especially for scoured foundations.Furthermore, climate change affects not only the bridge's structural performance but also its acceptable failure probability.These findings highlight the need for a simulation-and data-driven system reliability assessment, along with a scenario-based evaluation of acceptable failure probabilities under climate change.1