Low-carbon development path for Guangxi’s power sector based on scenario analysis

Carbon dioxide emissions from the power sector are one of the main sources of the greenhouse effect, and it is crucial to accelerate the low-carbon transformation of the power sector under the ‘dual-carbon’ goal. Based on the LEAP model and scenario analysis, this study constructs a baseline scenario, an existing policy scenario, a technology enhancement scenario, and a zero-carbon renewable energy scenario, and evaluates and analyses the characteristics of the electricity demand and the carbon reduction pathway of the power industry of the Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region in the medium and long term (20212050). The results show that under the existing policy scenario, carbon emissions from the power sector decline by $65.2 \%$ by 2050 compared to the baseline scenario, while under the technology enhancement scenario they decline by $82.1 \%$ compared to the baseline scenario. Renewable energy substitution, flexibility retrofit of coal-fired units, and upgrading of the industry’s energy efficiency level are the key measures. In addition, the application practice of carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology plays an important role in the low-carbon development path of the power sector. Under the zero-carbon renewable energy scenario, the zerocarbon emission target is expected to be achieved by 2050.