Forecasting the Total Renewable Energy Portfolio Quota under the Dual Carbon Targets

This study, framed by China’s “dual carbon” objectives, presents a predictive framework for overall renewable energy consumption. The approach integrates an autoregressive model with an ARIMA time series method to provide a comprehensive analysis and validation of electricity consumption and energy use. The study examined variations in China’s total renewable energy consumption under different policy scenarios: if the policy contribution rate is 100%, renewable electricity consumption will reach 6,624.0 billion kWh (accounting for 51.63%); if it is only 60%, additional measures such as reinforcing the electricity pricing mechanism and enhancing grid flexibility upgrades are required, leading to a consumption level of 5,883.4 billion kWh (accounting for 45.86%). Finally, the feasibility of the renewable energy consumption forecasting model was analyzed.