India’s Strategic Posture Under Modi: Continuity or Change? Implications for Pakistan’s Security and Regional Stability

This study critically examines the transformation of India’s strategic and nuclear posture under Prime Minister Narendra Modi, highlighting its destabilizing effects on South Asia’s deterrence equilibrium and the evolving trilateral dynamics with Pakistan and China. Through a qualitative interpretivist approach, integrating documentary analysis, discourse analysis, and deterrence theory, the research traces India’s doctrinal shift from credible minimum deterrence to a more assertive, flexible posture, characterized by Cold Start operationalization, ambiguity surrounding No First Use, and rapid force modernization including S-400 systems, hypersonic weapons, and deepened U.S. defense ties via LEMOA, COMCASA, and BECA. Pakistan’s response, grounded in Full Spectrum Deterrence and lowered nuclear thresholds, underscores a growing security dilemma, while China’s expanding strategic presence through CPEC, LAC tensions, and Indo-Pacific competition forces India to navigate a complex two-front scenario. The study argues that without urgent arms control, crisis management frameworks, and regional dialogue, this triadic configuration risks inadvertent escalation, miscalculation, and long-term strategic instability in one of the world’s most volatile nuclear theatres.