Provincial Carbon Inequality in China’s Construction Industry

The construction industry is a significant contributor to global environmental pressures, China, with its vast construction market, has pledged to peak carbon emissions by 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality by 2060. However, provincial disparities in China, including economic structure, urbanization rates, and resource endowments, have led to carbon transfers and carbon leakage, exacerbating provincial carbon inequality and complicate the implementation of effective carbon reduction strategies. Using data from 2011-2020, this study analyses the spatiotemporal characteristics of CO2 emissions and value added in China’s construction industry and identifies driving factors contributing to regional disparities. Theil index is adopted to measure provincial carbon inequality and the LMDI method to decompose the impact of driving factors on CO2 emissions in provinces’ construction industry. Findings indicate that carbon inequality has worsened over the past decade, with the eastern region exhibiting the highest inter-provincial inequality. Intra-province inequality is the main cause of overall carbon inequality nationwide, but the impact of inter-province inequality is constantly increasing. The economic size of a province is the most significant driver of carbon emissions, while population size plays a lesser role. This study contributes new evidence to the understanding of provincial carbon inequality in China’s construction industry and provides insights for sustainable development and climate justice.