Integrating Future Energy Scenarios in Building Life Cycle Assessments: Applying Dynamic LCA to Two University Buildings

The urgency to address climate change necessitates an understanding of embodied energy in the built environment, particularly the importance of accounting for future energy scenarios to ensure sustainable construction practices align with the evolving energy landscape. As buildings increasingly reduce their operational energy consumption, the study of embodied energy becomes crucial, highlighting the environmental impact of construction materials and processes over the building's lifecycle. Traditional Life Cycle Assessment methodologies, which predominantly rely on static current data, fail in accurately assessing the environmental impact of buildings over their extensive life spans of 75-100 years. Our research addresses these shortcomings by utilizing a Dynamic Life Cycle Assessment (DLCA) framework that integrates future scenarios of energy mixes to calculate the future embodied energy and carbon impacts of building materials, systems, and services. This method enhances our understanding of the long-term environmental footprint of buildings, paving the way for more sustainable construction practices. To illustrate the effectiveness of the DLCA framework, we present a case study of two university buildings. This demonstration projects the future embodied energy and carbon emissions for these buildings for the years 2030, 2050, and 2080, employing the Input Output Hybrid model data. Through this analysis, we aim to reveal not only the evolving environmental impact of these buildings over time but also to highlight the differences between the embodied impacts of the two buildings. This study reinforces the capability of DLCA framework to steer construction practices towards sustainability in buildings.