Four Futures One Solution for a Sustainable Reduction in Construction Delay and Disruption Disputes by 2030

Scenario planning is a research method that enables leaders to prepare for the future by revealing the impending opportunities and threats to businesses and markets. Although scenario planning has been used to forecast forces that will impact the construction sector, none of the recent studies investigates the potential of dispute reduction solutions to mitigate the negative impact of such future developments. Thus, the objectives of this study are to (i) offer a conceptual dispute reduction solution; (ii) establish the characteristics of four hypothetical scenarios based on the main forces that will impact the construction sector in 2030 and (iii) seek verification of the offered solution, including its ability to mitigate the impact of these forces. Therefore, the research methods are literature analysis, synthesis and evaluation, to fulfil objective one, and scenario planning, to realise objectives two and three. The research findings reveal that source materials, contract provisions and technology are the three tenets of a conceptual solution that can reduce delay and disruption disputes over matters of fact. Climate change and profit margins are the main forces that will impact the construction sector in 2030. As the consequences of climate change are likely to increase, contract terms that allocate risks associated with it are likely to be modified and insurance companies are liable to increase indemnification premiums, or become unable to cover such risks. This paper offers an innovative conceptual solution that increases contractual certainty through a risk allocation mechanism that mitigates the impact of those forces.