Spatial differentiation of regional opportunities in China and its impact on population migration

As urbanization dynamics transform and dominant social challenges change, population migration in China has exhibited distinct new trends. Understanding the regional opportunity factors that shape migration is crucial for uncovering the driving forces behind these changes. This study builds on the theoretical framework of regional opportunity structures, developing an evaluation system that uses the entropy weight method, the Decision-Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory method, and self-organizing map neural network techniques to assess and categorize the regional opportunity levels of China's prefecture-level cities. Using data from CMDS 2017, the research explores how regional opportunity levels affect both the mobility-stickiness of population migration. The main findings are as follows: (1) By introducing the geographical concept of "regional opportunities" into population migration research, this study creates a "mobility-stickiness" analytical framework. This framework investigates how spatial differences in regional opportunities shape migration behavior, focusing on four key dimensions: economic development opportunities, life service opportunities, institutional and cultural opportunities, and natural environment opportunities. (2) The overall regional opportunity levels in China are generally aligned with the levels of regional economic development and can be categorized into seven distinct clusters. (3) Major urban agglomerations and provincial capital cities are the primary destinations for population migration. Economic opportunities remain a key driver of migration from a mobility perspective, while differences in migration destinations and motivations shape the diverse impacts of various opportunity dimensions from a retention perspective. Individual characteristics also play a significant role in moderating how regional opportunities impact migration decisions. (4) Based on the influence of the dominant and limiting factors of regional opportunities on population migration, the study identifies four types of regional opportunity models: hard-factor dominant zones, hard-factor constrained zones, soft-factor dominant zones, and soft-factor constrained zones. Targeted strategies are suggested to address the unique challenges and strengths of each type. The framework for analyzing regional opportunities proposed in this study offers broad applicability beyond China, providing valuable insights for designing population management and regional development policies in other contexts.